Deal Probability Calculator

Deal probability starts with a base win rate for each sales stage (e.g., Prospecting: 10%, Qualification: 25%, Demo: 40%, Proposal: 60%, Negotiation: 75%, Closing: 90%). This base rate is then adjusted by signals like having an identified champion (+10-15%), confirmed budget (+10%), validated timeline (+5-10%), and competitive factors (-5 to -15%).

Expected deal value is the deal size multiplied by the win probability. For example, a $50,000 deal with a 60% win probability has an expected value of $30,000. This metric helps sales managers create more accurate revenue forecasts by weighting each deal in the pipeline by its likelihood of closing.

Industry averages vary, but typical B2B win rates by stage are: Prospecting (5-10%), Qualification (15-25%), Demo/Meeting (30-45%), Proposal (50-65%), Negotiation (65-80%), and Closing (85-95%). These rates vary significantly by industry, deal size, and sales process maturity.

Having an identified champion (an internal advocate at the prospect company) is one of the strongest predictors of deal success. Research from Gartner shows that deals with a champion are 2-3x more likely to close. Our calculator adds 10-15% to the base probability when a champion is confirmed.

Yes. Dewx GTM Hub tracks every deal in your pipeline and uses AI to analyze win probability based on engagement patterns, email sentiment, meeting frequency, and other signals. Dew provides real-time forecasts and alerts you when deals are at risk, helping you take action before it is too late.